Musings of the Technical Bard

The “uncertainty” behind global warming science that got its real start with the ClimateGate emails is getting legs as more and more “questionable” things start to pop up.  Here is the latest:

Glaciergate

The IPCC and it’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, are starting to take real heat, particularly in India and the UK for promoting the completely speculative idea that the Himalayan glaciers would melt away by 2035 (90% probability).  This was a complete failure to follow their own rules of only using peer-reviewed literature, since they got this from an interview with one of Pachauri’s TERI scientists, Hasnain, in New Scientist, via the World Wildlife Fund.  TERI is now facing serious questions for claiming as recently as 15 January 2010 in a request for funding that the Himalayan glaciers will soon be gone…  Even the lead author on the IPCC AR4 section is now distancing himself from this

Amazongate?

Similar to the aforementioned problem with Himalayan glaciers, it also appears that the IPCC relied on WWF and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as the primary source for their claim that the Amazon rainforest would dry up and disappear…

IPCC using non-peer reviewed primary sources?

The IPCC AR4 report draws heavily on publications by the World Wildlife Fund, which is most definitely NOT peer-reviewed science.

Cherry-picking weather stations…

The NASA GISS group that puts together the GHCN temperature measurement database appears to have been cherry-picking which weather stations they use, discarding those at high altitude or latitude.  This includes: using four stations for all of California, all of which are located near the beach; 35 stations in Canada, instead of the 600 that were used in the 1970s, and no stations in Bolivia on the odd basis that the Bolivians were late every month in submitting the data (couldn’t you go back an insert the missing data???).  The result is that temperatures far from the few weather stations are being interpolated from the limited dataset in use.  A NASA staffer is quoted as saying:

Schmidt also said a smaller sampling of weather stations in the Canadian Arctic wouldn’t have a significant impact on the data. He said any long-term temperature changes recorded at the high Arctic station at Eureka, would likely be “representative” of changes elsewhere in the region, even in a sub-Arctic city like Yellowknife.

“Temperature anomalies don’t vary that much from one (nearby) station to another,” he said. “You don’t need thousands of stations across Canada to know what the monthly anomalies are.”

This is like saying that temperature measurements in Edmonton, Alberta are a good guidance for Houston, Texas…  And why does Bolivia always seem so warm in the NASA databases…

Or just adjusting the data…

The NASA GISS group also appears to have scrambled around trying to cover up a change in how they handled data post 2000, by altering the previous data in the same way and then denying that it changes their results…  McIntyre has more on this one.

No basis for linking global warming and natural disasters:

The IPCC claimed in it’s 2007 AR4 document that “the world has suffered rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the 1970s” and “One study has found that while the dominant signal remains that of the significant increases in the values of exposure at risk, once losses are normalised for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend.”

The problem is that the “one study” wasn’t yet published, nor peer-reviewed, and when it was finally published in 2008, it contained this caveat:

We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and catastrophe losses.

Interesting.  So there isn’t any science behind this either.  h/t to Jonathon Leake at the Times.

It is also interesting that this same paper was the source for much of the doom and gloom in the Stern Report.   Interesting too that the UK government has been “editing” the Stern Report very recently to try to make some of the “false claims” disappear.  Too bad their math doesn’t add up.

I hope that the government in Ottawa is reading all of this…