Are you ready to pay?

In the draft proposal leaked in Copenhagen yesterday apparently suggests:

… that developing countries would not be allowed to emit more than 1.44 tonnes of annual carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person by 2050, but that developed countries would be allowed to emit up to 2.67 tonnes of annual carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person in 2050.

By comparison, the average Canadian now emits about 23 tonnes per year and the average passenger vehicle generates about five tonnes of emissions per year, according to recent data compiled by Statistics Canada.

Now, that means that Canada would need to reduce emissions by 90% from current levels.  What does that really mean.

Well, first of all, the 23 t/y per person isn’t really a fair number.  Because individuals and households only directly and indirectly account for 46% of the nations emissions (according to Statscan).  So the individual is really about 11 t/y.  But if a car emits 5 t/y, then a family of four with two cars is emitting HALF of their emissions just from the cars.  And the other half comes from heating the house, keeping the lights on and transporting food and goods that they use.

Now, if we assume that households and industry will fairly share the burden (not a bet I’d take, as government will screw the non-voting businesses first), then a family of four will have to reduce their emissions from 44 t/y to just 6 t/y.  Well, that means that they will only get to have one car (maybe), an it will need to be electric (hybrids won’t cut it), and the electricity will have to come from wind, solar or nuclear.  Even hydroelectric will be dodgy at this point because of the methane emissions from rotting vegetation in the reservoirs.

Now, let us turn to heating the house (important in a country like Canada).   Heating a house emits about 4-10 tonnes per year of CO2, with natural gas at the low end and electricity (from fossil fuels) and fuel oil at the top.  One option touted by some is to burn wood, because they are taking credit for the regrowing trees…. but the world doesn’t grow trees fast enough to justify this.  But even with natural gas, a family of four can’t even afford 4 t/y to heat the house.  And forget A/C in the summer.  Therefore, the only alternative is to switch to electric heat powered by wind, solar or nuclear.  And since wind and solar are intermittent (solar being particularly problematic in northern latitudes in winter), nuclear is the option.

This leaves us with a few tonnes/y for transportation of food and goods.  But there will be no more fresh fruit in Canada in winter.  The CO2 emissions from transportation from warmer climes will put us over.  So back to the era of canned foods through the winter.  And we will probably have to cut back on meats and fish – too energy intensive…  So vegetarianism for us all.

And industry will be shutting down.  The oil sands won’t need to be curtailed by government directly.   The cost of gasoline and diesel will have to be VERY high to prevent people from using it (or ban it outright).  The oil sands will die simply because no one will be allowed to use fossil fuels.   As will mining.  And major construction projects.

Are you ready Canada?  I will be nearly 80 when this will purportedly come to pass, but I am not looking forward to the next 40 years.  John Ivison is right…  Canadians want all the climate progress they can get for free.